President Joe Biden has endorsed a highly classified nuclear strategy that significantly refocuses U.S. defense priorities towards China as a primary nuclear threat. The shift also includes preparations for potential coordinated actions involving China, North Korea, and Russia against the United States, according to a recent report by the New York Times.

This new strategy, termed the “Nuclear Employment Guidance,” marks a notable change in the U.S. approach to nuclear deterrence. The adjustment reflects growing concerns about China’s rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal, which is anticipated to rival that of the United States and Russia. Biden’s approval of this plan underscores a strategic pivot aimed at addressing a more complex and multi-faceted nuclear threat environment.

The updated guidance was finalized in March and represents a comprehensive reevaluation of the United States’ nuclear posture. Sources indicate that this shift was driven by the Pentagon’s assessment of China’s aggressive nuclear modernization and expansion. The new strategy not only prioritizes China but also prepares for potential scenarios where China, North Korea, and Russia might jointly pose a nuclear threat.

In recent speeches, senior administration officials have hinted at the growing urgency surrounding China’s nuclear capabilities. Vipin Narang, who was serving as the acting assistant secretary of defense for space policy at the time, highlighted the updated nuclear employment guidance in a speech earlier this month. He noted the necessity of adapting U.S. defense strategies to account for the increasing size and diversity of China’s nuclear arsenal.

“My office has begun to provide the Department and the Joint Force updated implementation guidance on how to plan and posture our forces in this new environment.”

He also added during the speech the US hopes China engages “responsibly” on nuclear issues including transparency and risk reduction, which Washington officials have repeatedly raised with the rival nation.

National Security Council’s senior director for arms control and nonproliferation, Pranay Vaddi, also referred to the top-secret document in June, the Times reported.

The new game plan would focus on “the need to deter Russia, the [China] and North Korea simultaneously,” he said, per the newspaper.
Narang emphasized that the U.S. is now planning and positioning its forces with a new set of guidelines that reflect this evolving threat landscape. He also expressed hopes that China will engage more responsibly on nuclear issues, including greater transparency and risk reduction, areas where U.S. officials have persistently pressed their Chinese counterparts.

Similarly, Pranay Vaddi, the National Security Council’s senior director for arms control and nonproliferation, referenced the classified document in June. Vaddi underscored that the new strategy’s focus is on deterring not just one adversary but a potential simultaneous threat from Russia, China, and North Korea. This approach signifies a strategic shift from a more singular focus to a broader, multi-threat perspective.

The rationale behind this strategic realignment is rooted in the growing realization that the global nuclear landscape is becoming increasingly complex. China’s expanding nuclear arsenal and modernization efforts have prompted U.S. defense planners to reassess their strategies. The potential for a coordinated threat from China, North Korea, and Russia has led to a more integrated and comprehensive approach to nuclear deterrence.

This updated guidance reflects a broader trend in U.S. defense policy towards addressing the multi-dimensional nature of modern geopolitical threats. It underscores the administration’s recognition of the need to adapt to a rapidly changing strategic environment where traditional nuclear deterrence is no longer sufficient on its own.

The decision to focus on China, alongside the potential for a tripartite threat involving North Korea and Russia, highlights the complex challenges facing U.S. national security. It also illustrates a shift towards a more nuanced and responsive nuclear strategy, designed to address both emerging threats and the potential for coordinated adversarial actions.

As the United States navigates this evolving landscape, the implications of this strategic shift will likely resonate throughout global defense and diplomatic circles. The Biden administration’s approach reflects a strategic recalibration aimed at safeguarding national security in an increasingly volatile and interconnected world.